The total number of people registered as unemployed fell by 8,000 in the three months to June according to the latest ONS statistics, resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.8%.
However, the ONS also showed the claimant count - those out of work and receiving unemployment benefit - was up 2,300 in August to 1.47 million. This tends to be a good lead indicator of where the broader unemploymen measure will move in the future.
The number of people employed increased by 286,000 in the three months to July, however much of this increase was from part-time employment, including a large amount of seasonal employment.
Of course, we shouldn't read too much into one month's data, especially given how often it is revised.
Nonetheless, with the economy showing signs of slowing and with the uncertainty of public sector spending cuts ahead, it seems highly likely that the labour market will be weak throughout the rest of the year and into 2011.
I don't subscribe to the double-dip scenario, as economies don't generally move out of recession this way and the Bank of England has shown itself very willing to support the recovery. I also think that some of the estimates of job losses in the public sector and economic damage from cuts are overstated. Nevertheless, jobs will be lost in the public sector and in those private sector companies directly affected.
The private sector is likely to be creating jobs at the same time but with wages flat and jobs being lost in the public sector, the jobs market isn't likely to feel like it is roaring back into life.
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